My poor mother.
When I was 16 I went to her with a plan to go to Europe alone with my 16 year old friend.
When I was 19 I told her I was going to an African village for six months.
Then came hiking in the Andes, scuba in the Indian ocean, India on $4 a day, camel safari in the Sahara and countless other frightening things.
When I told her about the trip to Everest she gasped. And then she said "I have just learned to smile and pray" I love my mother. She is the nicest person this world has ever produced and I hate to worry her. But I also like to do stupid things.
So this post is devoted primarily to her. But also to anyone who thinks weird things are scary.
So mom, lets pretend I wasn't flying literally half way around the world and hiking a on a trail featured in multiple horror movies. Let's say I was driving to Disneyland, staying at a hotel with a pool and spending three days at the happiest place on earth. Which is more deadly?
It's easy right? Clearly, hiking on the Everest trail is the worst option ever. No one ever made a "Into Thin Air" about the Matterhorn ride.
But that is were our brains are tricking us. We are hardwired to believe that the strangest option is the most dangerous. We believe that normal things are safe because we have done them. And for zillions of years this mentality kept our DNA passed on. If we just do normal things we likely know how to respond to them. "So," says our body, "we will keep doing the normal things and we may live to reproduce! Hurrah and let's have sex!"
This works really great for savanna living. Not so much for our modern world.
So here is the risk. Let's start with Everest. I will fly 15,000 miles round trip to Kathmandu (longer because I have wicked cheep tickets). The death rate per mile is (drum roll please)....zero. Yup. Air travel is so ridiculously safe that they cannot even calculate the chance you have of dying on a commercial (non-combat) airplane. Okay...well so far so good.
But now comes the hike itself. Super dangerous yes? Well...not really. Remember, I'm not summiting Everest. I'm hiking to 18,000 feet up to base camp snapping a few photos and heading down.
They don't keep statistics on the Everest base camp trail. But for the Everest region the worst year on record is 4 deaths for a 30,000 visitors. Yikes right. That is hugely tragic for the four families. And horrible. But really really unlikely.
I have a 0.0013% chance of dying on the trail. Also keep in mind that one who died during that year (and most years there are no deaths) had a heart issue that caused the death. I don't have any heart issues so it drops my odds to 0.001%. I'm not going to figure in the fact that my tour operator required me to have helicopter evacuation insurance before they would take me. Or the fact that I have climbed to 20,000 feet multiple times with no altitude sickness. Also, the stats include everyone who goes in the region with or without a guide in any physical condition and with any sort of preparation. So, even though I suspect my odds are much better. We will leave it at the conservative 0.001% chance of death.
Let's see how the road trip to Disney stacks up. I will need to drive 1400 miles round trip to get to that happiness.
We have a mortality rate in the US of 1.5 deaths per 100 million miles driven.
So the likely hood of dying while driving is 0.002%
Wait.
We haven't even gotten to Disneyland and I am already twice as likely to die on the Disney vacation than on my Everest hike on the deadliest year on record. Yup. See how scary the normal behavior of driving is. But, because it is so normal, our savanna brains are really okay with it.
Disney doesn't keep records on deaths in the park. But it isn't null. Just the same we won't add it in...even though I suspect we could have some danger from heat stroke, ride malfunction (yep there have been a few) and cute overdose.
So...final verdict.
Chance of death Everest trip--0.001%
Chance of death Disney--0.002%
So mom. I'm going to be okay. Really you should worry about your neighbor who is heading to Disneyland.
But wait! The chance of death isn't zero. There is still risk.
Yep.
There is.
And I decided a long time ago that sometimes you just take risks. Because the alternative is a risk all its own.
When I was 16 I went to her with a plan to go to Europe alone with my 16 year old friend.
When I was 19 I told her I was going to an African village for six months.
Then came hiking in the Andes, scuba in the Indian ocean, India on $4 a day, camel safari in the Sahara and countless other frightening things.
When I told her about the trip to Everest she gasped. And then she said "I have just learned to smile and pray" I love my mother. She is the nicest person this world has ever produced and I hate to worry her. But I also like to do stupid things.
So this post is devoted primarily to her. But also to anyone who thinks weird things are scary.
So mom, lets pretend I wasn't flying literally half way around the world and hiking a on a trail featured in multiple horror movies. Let's say I was driving to Disneyland, staying at a hotel with a pool and spending three days at the happiest place on earth. Which is more deadly?
It's easy right? Clearly, hiking on the Everest trail is the worst option ever. No one ever made a "Into Thin Air" about the Matterhorn ride.
 |
| Not so much me |
This works really great for savanna living. Not so much for our modern world.
So here is the risk. Let's start with Everest. I will fly 15,000 miles round trip to Kathmandu (longer because I have wicked cheep tickets). The death rate per mile is (drum roll please)....zero. Yup. Air travel is so ridiculously safe that they cannot even calculate the chance you have of dying on a commercial (non-combat) airplane. Okay...well so far so good.
But now comes the hike itself. Super dangerous yes? Well...not really. Remember, I'm not summiting Everest. I'm hiking to 18,000 feet up to base camp snapping a few photos and heading down.
They don't keep statistics on the Everest base camp trail. But for the Everest region the worst year on record is 4 deaths for a 30,000 visitors. Yikes right. That is hugely tragic for the four families. And horrible. But really really unlikely.
I have a 0.0013% chance of dying on the trail. Also keep in mind that one who died during that year (and most years there are no deaths) had a heart issue that caused the death. I don't have any heart issues so it drops my odds to 0.001%. I'm not going to figure in the fact that my tour operator required me to have helicopter evacuation insurance before they would take me. Or the fact that I have climbed to 20,000 feet multiple times with no altitude sickness. Also, the stats include everyone who goes in the region with or without a guide in any physical condition and with any sort of preparation. So, even though I suspect my odds are much better. We will leave it at the conservative 0.001% chance of death.
Let's see how the road trip to Disney stacks up. I will need to drive 1400 miles round trip to get to that happiness.
We have a mortality rate in the US of 1.5 deaths per 100 million miles driven.
So the likely hood of dying while driving is 0.002%
Wait.
We haven't even gotten to Disneyland and I am already twice as likely to die on the Disney vacation than on my Everest hike on the deadliest year on record. Yup. See how scary the normal behavior of driving is. But, because it is so normal, our savanna brains are really okay with it.
Disney doesn't keep records on deaths in the park. But it isn't null. Just the same we won't add it in...even though I suspect we could have some danger from heat stroke, ride malfunction (yep there have been a few) and cute overdose.
So...final verdict.
Chance of death Everest trip--0.001%
Chance of death Disney--0.002%
So mom. I'm going to be okay. Really you should worry about your neighbor who is heading to Disneyland.
But wait! The chance of death isn't zero. There is still risk.
Yep.
There is.
And I decided a long time ago that sometimes you just take risks. Because the alternative is a risk all its own.
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